Right now, the world is collectively fighting an enemy that is omnipresent; invisible, fast-moving and indiscriminate. In Man’s quest for peace and progress we have spent decades removing barriers and frontiers, connecting up in trading knowledge and goods, bringing all races into an ever-more tightening circle, and in the process creating the perfect environment for a foe like COVID-19 to take full advantage of.
The speed and ferocity with which it has spanned the globe has shocked societies and markets into almost complete paralysis. The rapid and dynamic nature of the situation presents our leaders with difficult decision which need to be assessed and changed even by the hour.
The world will never be the same again, and for the most of us, we can’t really think beyond the present… and survival, but as the Persian proverb says ‘this too shall pass’.
Or will it?
Whatever the answer, we can only start to postulate on what the future may look like by endeavoring to understand the past, and how the present circumstances will impact our habits and behaviors as a species.
A Pandemic World – First Observations
Looking at the way the pandemic is spreading we observe various facts that are caused by it either directly or indirectly.
The virus is not selective; it kills young and old, any race, any status.
It has no respect of geographical or political boundaries.
It has exposed the fragility of the globally connected economy, and what happens when confidence is siphoned out of it.
It has shown that even the deepest reserves in central banks are all but futile when there is a wholesale rout in markets.
Indirectly, the virus has shown us that even free-market nations need a centralization of government control and police enforcement to combat this enemy.
And lastly, it has shown that mankind will break almost every rule to socialize in times like this, regardless of the implications.
If it has done nothing else, this virus has abruptly burst the bubble of unsustainable trading which had been created and funded by the printing of money since the last Global Financial Crisis in 2008-2009. The total world debt is about $130 Trillion greater today than it was in GFC1, and a painful correction has been predicted since 2017.
So even if this virus is contained and conquered within the year (and that will be a medical triumph) the financial markets and the global economy face an altogether more daunting road to recovery. Right now, success is to survive the present maelstrom.