"What will it take to encourage much more widespread reliance on working at home for at least part of each week?" asked Frank Schiff, the chief economist of the US Committee for Economic Development, in The Washington Post in 1979.
Four decades on, we have the answer.
But COVID-19 doesn't spell the end of the centralized office predicted by futurists since at least the 1970s.
The organizational benefits of the "propinquity effect"—the tendency to develop deeper relationships with those we see most regularly—are well-established.
The open-plan office will have to evolve, though, finding its true purpose as a collaborative work space augmented by remote work.
If we're smart about it, necessity might turn out to be the mother of reinvention, giving us the best of both centralized and decentralized, collaborative and private working worlds.
Cultural resistance
Organizational culture, not technology, has long been the key force keeping us in central offices.
"That was the case in 1974 and is still the case today," observed the "father of telecommuting" Jack Nilles in 2015, three decades after he and his University of Southern California colleagues published their landmark report Telecommunications-Transportation Tradeoff: Options for Tomorrow. "The adoption of telework is still well behind its potential."
Until now.
But it has taken a pandemic to change the status quo—evidence enough of culture resistance.
In his 1979 article, Schiff outlined three key objections to working from home:
how to tell how well workers are doing, or if they are working at all
employees' need for contact with coworkers and others
too many distractions.
To the first objection, Schiff responded that experts agreed performance is best judged by output and the organization's objectives. To the third, he noted: "In many cases, the opposite is likely to be true."
The COVID-19 experiment so far supports him. Most workers and managers are happy with remote working, believe they are performing just as well, and want to continue with it.
There is evidence remote workers crave more feedback.
As researchers Ethan Bernstein and Ben Waber note in their Harvard Business Review article The Truth About Open Offices, published in November 2019, "one of the most robust findings in sociology—proposed long before we had the technology to prove it through data—is that propinquity, or proximity, predicts social interaction".
Waber's research at the MIT Media Lab demonstrated the probability that any two workers will interact—either in person or electronically—is directly proportional to the distance between their desks. In his 2013 book People Analytics he includes the following results from a bank and information technology company.
Experiments in collaboration
Interest in fostering collaboration has sometimes led to disastrous workplace experiments. One was the building Frank Gehry designed for the Chiat/Day advertising agency in the late 1980s.
Agency boss Jay Chiat envisioned his headquarters as a futuristic step into "flexible work"—but workers hated the lack of personal spaces.
Less dystopian was the Pixar Animation Studios headquarters opened in 2000. Steve Jobs, majority shareholder and chief executive, oversaw the project. He took a keen interest in things like the placement of bathrooms, accessed through the building's central atrium. "We wanted to find a way to force people to come together," he said, "to create a lot of arbitrary collisions of people".
Yet Bernstein and Waber's research shows propinquity is also strong in "campus" buildings designed to promote "serendipitous interaction". For increased interactions, they say, workers should be "ideally on the same floor".